Risk Management in a Climbing Environment – Part I
Climb if you will, but remember that courage and strength are naught without prudence, and that a momentary negligence may destroy the happiness of a lifetime. Do nothing in haste; look well to each step; and from the beginning think what may be the end. – Edward Whymper
Let me preface this by stating that while I may be charged with managing and communicating risk in my professional life I am certainly no expert in Risk Management and these thoughts should be considered just that, my thoughts. However, my observation is that we’re all confronted with some level of risk on a daily basis and readily go about managing it without an expensive degree in the wide-ranging field of study. Below you will find my informal attempt to define risk and then in Part II apply a reasonable risk management framework to a climbing environment. The goal of this entry is to put risk and risk management into perspective for myself in the context of climbing and create a decision-making system that will facilitate safe passage in the mountains that I can continue to develop.
As recreational and professional climbers it is not unreasonable to think we can self-study and learn to apply a framework to risk management, even at a basic level, that can advance a safer and more enjoyable experience in the mountains or at the local crag.
Other than transferring the main responsibility of risk management to someone else (a professional guide for example) there is no credible substitute for experience and education in terms of effectively identifying risks in a climbing environment. My personal philosophy is that one should never rely on someone else to entirely manage risk for us. We should constantly be scrutinizing situations and decision-making if for no other reason than to learn from the experience.
On Risk
So what is risk, exactly? The ISO/IEC defines risk as the combination of (a) the probability of an event occurring, and (b) the consequences of that event.
Therefore risk is an equation, something to be judged carefully and that includes multiple parts. To add a twist, in climbing environments, these variables of probability and consequence are often fluid. Probability can vary based on changing weather, time of day, and terrain (e.g., glaciers), and consequences can be different depending on our actions. A simple example of how we can influence both aspects of risk would be (a) an individual reducing the probability of an avalanche occurrence by avoiding the terrain altogether and (b) reducing the potential consequences by wearing a helmet and beacon, and carrying a probe and shovel. You may conclude that certain safety systems such as wearing a helmet and beacon reduce the potential consequences but have no affect on the probability.
This ability to influence risk is why I personally believe continuing professional development (medical, avalanche, technical systems, etc.) and continuing my own self-education through critical self-analysis and study is an integral part of risk management. If we perceive a threat as lower than it actually is through our inexperience or lack of knowledge then we expose ourselves and our partners or clients to unnecessary risk. Conversely, if we perceive a threat as greater than it actually is we have the potential to sacrifice efficiency in moving toward our objective. Before we can treat risk, we need to be able to identify it.
Consider that while the probability of an avalanche may be low based on a personal assessment, the event can often have life and death consequences. Therefore, in this instance, the identified risk would be the potential for an avalanche resulting in a consequence of death or serious injury and decisions would need to be made accordingly. This is risk and it is constantly variable. In the context of climbing, you may now appraise an avalanche without a human actor as not a risk at all, but rather a naturally occurring event. Consider that if we don’t have a complete and accurate valuation of both probability and consequence, we don’t in fact comprehend the risk in its entirety. Any decision-making involves a bit of luck.
Travel with and learn from someone who can identify the objective hazards and assess risks. Never rely on a system you don’t fully understand. If you have no awareness of how snow can be transported in the hills and then decide to climb accepting a ‘Moderate Avy Danger’ rating posted at 0600 you may still end up wandering onto a wind loaded slab triggering a slide that rips you off the climb. Before a valid risk decision can be made and acted upon, individuals need to be able to competently identify and describe the risks inherent in the terrain in which they travel and are potentially exposing themselves and others to.
Also, be sure to assess the net total of a consequence. After all things have been considered, if an event occurs, what will be the potential result? We need to consider not just broken bones and the misery of dragging ourselves four kilometers back to a car, but also how the consequences will affect our families, jobs, and whatever else would be affected by the occurrence.
In conclusion, risk is a combination of probability and consequence that doesn’t exist without a human actor. Think about how an avalanche has no real consequence without a human being in its path. To begin formulating and defining risks start asking yourself ‘What could go wrong?’ and ‘What could the consequences be?’ This will give you a basic understanding of risk.
The real challenge beyond identifying and defining risk becomes risk management. In Part II I’ll begin to cover risk management which includes topics such as: risk assessment, evaluation, decision-making, risk treatment, and risk monitoring.
